By LANCE GAY
July 14, 2004
Savvy food manufacturers and restaurateurs could make a lot of money helping Americans battle the obesity epidemic, just as they profited by larding up consumers, food industry consultants say.
Leonard Teitelbaum, a Merrill Lynch food analyst, told the Institute of Food Technologists convention here this week that every 1 percent shift in what foods Americans buy represents a $1.5 billion market, and new product lines that appeal to lighter consumer tastes could be lucrative.
"That's enough to get anyone concerned and excited," Teitelbaum said, noting Wall Street can punish the stocks of food manufacturers who don't keep up with what customers want. He noted stocks of bread and chocolate manufacturers currently are feeling the wrath of stock holders because of the impact low-carbohydrate diets are having on traditional bread and cookie producers.
"Obesity is a big deal," Teitelbaum said.
But some consultants claimed the Atkins diet is just a fad, and destined soon to go the way of the Scarsdale and the grapefruit diets. They predicted the next food fad will be healthy, lower calorie foods and products that can be marketed as "good for you, better for you."
"You are going to see calorie consciousness back," John Stanton, a professor of food marketing at Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia told the annual convention of professional food scientists and industry representatives.
Stanton said he expects the Atkins fad to begin running out of steam in two years, replaced by a niche market for foods that are lower in fats, lower in added sugar and lower in calories.
"There are riches in niches," he said. "Obesity can mean fat profits."
Lester Crawford, acting commissioner of the U.S Food and Drug Administration, said his agency this year will propose the first revision in food labels in a decade that will emphasize the calorie content of foods. He said final decisions haven't been made, but he wants to make the type-size larger and add information to the nutrition label.
Crawford said the government also is asking restaurants to come up with a way of telling consumers the nutritional content of the foods they serve.
"We're going to try voluntary, but if that doesn't work, we're going to come back to this," Crawford said, hinting the government will consider mandatory regulations. The industry adamantly opposes nutrition labeling, pointing out that consumers make so many changes in the way they want their food prepared that labeling would be difficult to implement properly.
Judith Stern of the American Obesity Association and a food nutrition professor at the University of California-Davis said the government's actions are much too timid.
"I am very discouraged about this," Stern said, contending the government isn't doing enough to seriously address the problem of obesity in America. "There's been a piddle response to obesity."
Stern said that government statistics show a startling increase in rates of obesity in the United States, with the number of teenagers classified as obese rising from 5 percent in 1985 to 16 percent in 2002, and a four-fold increase in the number of Americans more than 100 pounds overweight. More than 60 percent of American adults are obese or overweight.
Stern noted that U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics show that between 1985 and 2002, average daily calorie consumption rose from 2,220 to 2,680 calories. The government says the average daily caloric intake should be no more than 2,000 calories.
Stern said small reductions in the calorie content of restaurant food could have a major effect over time.
She criticized the industry for super-sizing portions to increase sales. Over the last 50 years, the size of standard plates in restaurants has increased from 10 inches in diameter to 12 inches, and the content of muffins and bagels has doubled. She said cookbooks have also increased portion size and some fast food restaurants no longer offer soft drinks in small sizes.
"People should move more and eat less," said Robert Earl of the National Food Processors Association. He said the food industry is being blamed even though most Americans eat a majority of food at home, and less than 5 percent of cooks are following government food serving guidelines.
Cathy Kapica, global director of nutrition at McDonald's restaurants, said her industry is responding to concerns over obesity by offering salads and low-cal "Happy Meal" choices of apple slices. In hopes of increasing sales of milk rather than soft drinks and juices, the restaurant is repackaging 1 percent low fat milk into plastic jugs that Kapica said were designed to attract youngsters.
"Packaging is everything," Kapica said.
The company is also unveiling a new slimmer Ronald McDonald and displaying the nutritional content of its products on tray liners.
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(Reach Lance Gay at gayl(at)shns.com)